When the Toronto Maple Leafs signed 30-year-old defenceman TJ Brodie to a four-year $20 million deal back in October it seemed like pretty fair value and a good fit.
Brodie is another left-hand shot, but he’s played the right side with Mark Giordano a tonne over the years in Calgary. The idea here is obviously to plug Brodie into the top four on the right side alongside either Morgan Rielly or Jake Muzzin. That’s where the simplicity ends with Brodie, though, as he’s a tough player to evaluate despite having already played nine NHL seasons.
Other than the question of age and how Brodie will hold up over the next few seasons, the question that begs being answered is whether he’s a product of playing with one of the best defenders in the league or not. The fact that the one season Brodie dipped below 50th percentile by xWAR (2017-18) was a season in which he didn’t play with Giordano at all would lend credence to the theory that he really is just a product of his partner. Brodie spent no time with Giordano during that season, instead playing 80% of his 5v5 minutes alongside Travis Hamonic. What makes this theory less credible is the fact that his five year peak happened the season prior (2016-17), when he spent 45% of his 5v5 TOI with an aging Dennis Wideman and another combined 40% with Michael Stone and Deryk Engelland. What makes this even more impressive/confusing is that Brodie led the team in 5v5 and all-situations ice time by a fair margin, playing more than both Giordano and Dougie Hamilton. Playing top pair minutes with a rotating cast of Not Good defencemen doesn’t seem like optimal circumstances, but Brodie was also 26 and playing on his strong side.
The 2018-19 season saw Brodie back riding shotgun with Giordano for around 80% of his 5v5 ice time. Giordano won his first Norris Trophy at age 34 at the conclusion of that season. Last season Brodie saw his ice time with Giordano dialled back to about 60% of his 5v5 TOI due to both players missing time and he was just as effective with Stone in the chunk of time he spent with him, which is impressive.
Brodie’s defining trait over his career has been his defensive impact, except if Travis Hamonic is present. He’s had a positive impact on expected goals against in every season but two over his career, one being the season with Hamonic and the other was the 2014-15 season, during which the Flames weren’t very good at preventing shots and chances or creating them in the other end. He’s also managed to maintain a +19 penalty differential over his career despite being a defenceman playing top competition most nights, although that cratered last season where he was a -9 in that department. This could be a sign of age related decline where he’s lost a step and as a result is more often forced into bad position, but it could also simply be an outlier.
Brodie isn’t big (listed at 6’1, 185 pounds), but he’s a good skater who makes good reads all over the ice and can get his stick in lanes. When he’s at his best he’s stepping up on opposing puck carriers all over the ice and his skating allows him to keep tight gaps.
This makes it very difficult for the opposition to get the puck into the offensive zone with possession. When he’s backing off and playing loose gaps, he’s much less effective.
You can tell he has a lot of respect for Miro Heiskanen’s incredible speed, but he had back pressure from Mikael Backlund and should’ve been right in Heiskanen’s grill. As a caveat, this is five minutes into game one of a playoff series against the Stars so he’s likely been watching tonnes of video of Heiskanen burning guys. I’d like to think that later on in the series he would close that gap much quicker, as he’s done decently well over the years.
Brodie’s entry defence cratered last season, but so did most of Calgary’s defenders. It seems the coaching change had a lot to do with that, as the Flames prioritized protecting the home plate area around the net over stepping up and defending the blueline under head coach Geoff Ward.
Brodie is pretty good at making the first pass out of the zone when he gets the puck on his stick as well.
The other stylistic part of Brodie’s game I like as a fit with the Leafs is his preference to pass the puck in the offensive zone over shooting the puck from the blueline. The best defencemen on the Leafs in Rielly and Muzzin shoot the puck too much for my liking, especially considering the talent of the forward group. Brodie’s tendency to pass should pair nicely with Keefe’s offensive zone system which sees the Leafs often having a forward hanging out high in the zone looking for space and giving a relatively easy passing option to the puck carrier. We might see a few of these this year with Brodie providing the primary pass.
Brodie’s passing ability is also likely what’s made him effective on the powerplay over his career and I’d like to see him get a shot on the top unit. When you have Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander out there with time and space you ideally don’t want to see your defenceman throwing pucks at the net from the blueline if you can help it.
It’s going to be fascinating tracking Brodie’s play with his new team. Keefe has the option of putting Brodie with Muzzin and creating a really solid shut down pair who can also create some offence or pairing him up with Rielly and depending on Brodie to make up for some of Rielly’s defensive holes. Pairing Brodie with Muzzin could free Rielly up to do what he does best, create offence, while feeding Brodie-Muzzin heavy defensive zone starts against top competition. Keefe will likely try out both options over the course of the season.
The Leafs have improved their defence core significantly with the addition of Brodie, they just have to hope the wheels don’t fall off with age any time soon as his skating is a major part of his ability to defend effectively.