Examining what changed for William Nylander
Why Nylander's varying production rates aren't necessarily indicative of his impact on goals and wins
A lot has been made of William Nylander’s breakout 2019-20 season, and for good reason. Nylander missed training camp and the first two months of the season in 2018-19 while negotiating a new contract with the Leafs, which was signed just minutes before the deadline. The situation caused a lot of stress and bad takes in Leaf land and when Nylander went on to post only seven goals and 27 points over 54 games upon his return, the takes got even worse. The talking heads dug their heels even deeper into the “trade Nylander” discourse, which has followed him his entire career in Toronto. Nylander has never been properly appreciated for the things he does so well and has been unfairly chastised for some partial truths and some flat out fabrications since the day he was drafted instead of good Canadian boy™ Nick Ritchie.
Nylander has been one of my favourite players since day one, so I acknowledge that I may be a bit biased here, but it was validating to see Nylander’s counting stats explode in 2019-20. After his disappointing ‘18-19 campaign, Nylander posted his very first 30 goal season, scoring 31 in 68 games, while adding 28 assists for a total of 59 points. This came only two points shy of his career high 61 points, which he posted in consecutive seasons over 81 and 82 games respectively.
The funny thing is, though, is that his on-ice results were actually slightly better during his rollercoaster ‘18-19 campaign.
It’s easy to lose sight of the fact that the whole purpose of the game of hockey is to outscore the opposition and the most sustainable way of doing so over the long-term is by out-shooting and out-chancing the opposition. I’m being overly simplistic, of course, but there are process-oriented details of the game, that are often overlooked by fans and media alike, that lead to helping your team accomplish these goals. One of the major aspects I’m referring to is transition play, which Nylander really excels in. The ‘18/19 season was no exception to that.
Even when Nylander isn’t the one putting the puck in the net himself, he’s able to drive scoring chances and ultimately goals through his ability to carry the puck through the neutral zone and into the offensive zone with control.
These kinds of plays often lead to sustained pressure and chances for your team, but the player who brought the puck up ice and created the chance isn’t always credited with a point when the sequence leads to a goal.
Nylander has been virtually an automatic breakout with possession ever since he showed up in the league and it’s a talent that far too often goes overlooked.
Most of the difference in individual production between the ‘18-19 and ‘19-20 seasons can be attributed to two things: powerplay points and a wild swing in individual shooting percentage. Nylander quarterbacked the second powerplay unit from the half wall in ‘18-19 and played half the powerplay minutes he did in ‘19-20. His most common powerplay linemate went from Patrick Marleau in ‘18-19 (88% of his powerplay TOI) to Auston Matthews in ‘19-20 (85%). Nylander’s role on the powerplay also changed vastly year over year, as last season saw him playing in the net front role, which becomes clear when looking at the difference in shot locations.
Obviously, you score more from directly in front of the net than you do from the half wall. This is especially true when you consider a lot of those shots are coming off of rebounds and cross ice passes from the likes of Mitch Marner, John Tavares and Auston Matthews. The result was a jump from one goal and seven points on the powerplay in ‘18-19 to nine goals and 17 points during the ‘19-20 season.
The above clip is the one powerplay goal Nylander scored in ‘18-19. It’s a perfect shot and he deserves full credit there, but NHL goalies just don’t get beat like that from that spot on a consistent basis. Compare that to some of his powerplay goals from this season and you can start to see where the goal explosion came from.
Playing this spot also makes it much easier to pick up assists, especially when you’re passing it to two of the best goal scorers in the game in Matthews and Tavares.
This new role on the powerplay likely explains a portion of Nylander’s shooting percentage explosion, but it definitely does not explain the entire jump from 5% in ‘18-19 to 16% in ‘19-20. It’s also important to note that Nylander is a career +20 in the penalty differential department, which is a huge boost for a team who can’t seem to draw penalties despite the talent they have up front.
The narrative around Nylander before this season was that he was a perimeter player and he wasn’t scoring because he didn’t get to those “dirty areas.” While it’s true that his shot locations became more concentrated in the high percentage area around the net, he was getting shots from in tight in bunches the season before, too. It should be noted, though, that Nylander ranked 12th in the league this past season in high danger shot attempts per hour versus 42nd the season before. Both of those are very good, obviously, but if Nylander can continue shooting almost exclusively from the home plate area we may see him keep scoring at a rate close to last season’s.
On a per-minute basis, Nylander created scoring chances for himself at 5v5 at nearly the exact same rate in both years. The difference was he shot a little less this year, but from higher quality areas.
That being said, he had absolutely no puck luck in ‘18-19, whereas he probably had a pretty lucky shooting year in ‘19-20. His true shooting talent, what we should expect from him in the future, likely lies somewhere in the middle of these two polar opposite seasons. His timing being off due to missing so much of the beginning of the ‘18-19 season likely had something to do with that as well, but that’s simply an intuitive theory. I’m sure Nylander would tell you that that was the case here.
Since entering the league full-time in the ‘16-17 season, Nylander ranks 203rd in 5v5 sh% among players with over 2000 minutes over that span, just ahead of Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Eichel. The encouraging part here is that both Eichel and MacKinnon seem to have figured out how to convert chances into goals at a much higher rate as their careers have progressed despite shooting from less dangerous spots than Nylander. The obvious caveat here being that those are two of the absolute best players in the game who can absolutely rip the puck, but Nylander is a pretty talented shooter in his own right.
The hope here is that a combination of shot location and improved shooting talent as he plays through his hypothetical prime years results in a continued higher conversion rate.
Another improvement Nylander made this past season was in the type of passes he created in the offensive zone at 5v5.
Nylander was always a good passer, but he stepped into the elite tier of the league in ‘19-20 due to a big bump in high danger pass rate. It didn’t lead to a bump in assist rate last year, but it should in the future if he continues setting up dangerous shots at a rate similar to this past season. I do wonder whether the coaching change had anything to do with the uptick in high danger passes, but we’re just going to have to wait and find out.
Ultimately, Nylander’s impact on goals and expected goals remained solid over both seasons, so I’d call it a myth that Nylander was terrible in ‘18-19. You obviously want your top end players putting up individual goals and points, but at the end of the day Nylander’s strengths are in making his teammates better when they play with him. Nylander is one of the best passers and puck carriers in the NHL and swings in shooting percentage and powerplay opportunity likely don’t impact his effectiveness nearly as much as most would have you believe.