The dynamic force of Andrei Svechnikov
Breaking down how the 20-year-old has quickly become one of the game's premier wingers
On October 7, 2018, Andrei Svechnikov became the first player born in the 2000s to score a goal in the NHL. It was his third career NHL game.
Fast forward two years and Svechnikov is a premier winger in the league and he’s still just 20 years old. Svechnikov is one of the few wingers in the game who is able to consistently drive play in the right direction regardless of who he’s on the ice with on either side. He accomplishes this on the back of his elite offensive play driving ability.
I would argue that Svechnikov was a lot better in his rookie season than Evolving Wild’s WAR model indicates here. A big contributor in Svechnikov rating so poorly in his rookie season was his incredibly low on-ice shooting percentage, which is a notoriously erratic variable; especially at the individual player level. Despite ranking sixth in the NHL in terms of expected goal differential rate, his sub-6% on-ice shooting percentage tanked his results. Among the 131 players with at least 1000 5v5 minutes played in ‘18-19, only Mattias Janmark of the Dallas Stars had a worse on-ice shooting percentage than Svechnikov. To put it in layman’s terms, Svechnikov had an extremely unlucky rookie season in terms of shots and chances turning into actual goals. It didn’t help that his most common linemates were Jordan Martinook and Lucas Wallmark. Or that he spent a tonne of his time on the ice with Dougie Hamilton, a very shot heavy defencemen. Defencemen don’t typically convert on a high percentage of their shots relative to forwards, for obvious reasons.
Predictably, that bounced back in his sophomore season as he ended the regular season with an on-ice shooting percentage just a touch below ten per cent. The result was a huge boost in on-ice goal differential from 50% in ‘18-19 to 56% in ‘19-20. It definitely didn’t hurt that his most common linemate last season was Sebastian Aho, who had a breakout year in the goal department finishing 11th in 5v5 goals scored.
Svechnikov split time between two lines during the ‘19-20 regular season and both lines absolutely dominated by both goals and expected goals.
During both of his first two NHL seasons, Svechnikov ranked 16th in the NHL by expected goal differential relative to teammate. This becomes even more impressive considering the Hurricanes as a team ranked first in the NHL by this metric in ’18-19 and seventh in ‘19-20. This is to say that while the Hurricanes are an elite team at controlling shots and chances without Svechnikov, he’s still able to make them significantly better when he’s on the ice. He’s able to drive results in a variety of different ways and it makes watching him a tonne of fun.
Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first. The man can absolutely rip the puck and he uses this skill to beat goalies from everywhere on the ice. Not only is his shot extremely powerful, his release is also lightning fast, enabling him to get his lethal shot off under pressure from defenders.
Though his wrist shot is his most lethal weapon in the offensive zone, he has a pretty good one-timer as well, which I anticipate will become something we see him use more at least on the powerplay as his career progresses.
Svechnikov is also one of the most difficult players to stop when he’s in full stride coming down the wing as he loves to use his combination of speed and strength to drive to the net. He’s got an extremely powerful stride and it can surprise defenders because he doesn’t need many strides to pick up a lot of speed. When he gets that shoulder down and body position on the defender, look out.
Svechnikov can also get pretty creative, if you hadn’t heard.
He even had the confidence to try this in overtime of a playoff game.
The man isn’t afraid to think outside the box, even on clear cut breakaways.
Although Svechnikov has always been known more for his affinity for scoring goals, he’s also a very good passer as evidenced by his second place ranking on the team in high danger pass completion rate.
The threat of Svechnikov with the puck in the offensive zone draws defenders to him and often creates lanes, which he’s able to exploit even when it looks like there’s no chance he’s seen the lane open up.
He’s a lot to handle on the forecheck and sometimes defenders end up double teaming him, leading to an open man who he’s often able to find.
He can also thread cross-seam passes off the rush in full speed when defenders and the goaltender are worried about him driving to the net.
As mentioned above, he’s a force on the forecheck and when he gets the puck back he looks to do damage from below the goal line. Completed passes from below the goal line turn into goals at a very high rate, so this is a very useful skill to possess.
Despite his youth, Svechnikov plays an extremely heavy game and can really wear down opponents with his body. When he’s fully engaged on the forecheck, it’s going to be a long night for the opposition trying to get the puck out.
He’ll come out of nowhere and lay guys out in the defensive zone, too.
Though the defensive results aren’t there yet for Svechnikov, I think they we will see them improve significantly in the coming years. Upon re-watching the first two games of the Bruins series from in the bubble, Svechnikov was consistently the first forward back defensively. He was making plays, too, not just flying back and then not really knowing where to be as you’ll see with a lot of young forwards.
It will be interesting to track his progress on the defensive side of the puck as it seems he’s already made some big strides in that department and he has all the tools to be a two way monster. His positioning against the Bruins was extremely good and every time there was a loose puck anywhere on the ice when he was out there, he was the one getting to it. The one area of real concern I have with Svechnikov is his discipline, as he’s a -21 in the penalty differential department over his first two seasons. Penalties come with the territory of his style of play, but you’d like to see him make up the gap a little bit by drawing penalties as well. He seems too much to handle to not draw many penalties, but so far he’s been taking way more than he’s been drawing.
At just 20-years-old, Svechnikov is one of the premier wingers in the world and his unique blend of skill, strength and intelligence makes his ceiling unfathomably high. Svechnikov will be ready to return from the high ankle sprain he received in game three against the Bruins when the season starts and that’s tremendous news for both the Hurricanes and hockey fans alike. The Hurricanes look like they’re going to be one of the premier teams in the league for years to come and Svechnikov will likely be the face of the franchise, if he’s not already.